Life in opposition.

In the first column we looked at the similarities between the situations that John Key and Barack Obama find themselves in. This week we look at the people who came out on the wrong end of last year’s elections: The Labour Party in New Zealand and the Republicans in America.

Both parties found themselves thrown out of office and into opposition after long periods in power. The Republicans, already hurting from major losses in the 2006 midterm elections, lost control of the white house and for the first time since 1994 hold neither the Senate, The House or the White House. Here in New Zealand, Labour lost 7 seats in Parliament and found itself out of power for the first time since 1999.

Now out in the political wilderness, both parties have found themselves struggling. The Republicans have failed to find someone with the National Profile to serve as the popular face of the party, as Newt Gringrich did for the party during their years spent in opposition to the Clinton Administration. In the very profile focused world of American politics, the lack of strong national leadership is hurting the party, which has seen the approval ratings of its congressional leaders drop in the last few months.

Even worse for the Republicans have been the disastrous national debuts of several “rising stars” within the party. New Republican National Chairman Michael Steele, who initially won positive coverage for being the GOP’s first ever African-American chairman, received widespread derision for his comments that what Republicans needed to turn things around was “a hip-hop makeover.” The idea that the Republicans were thrown out of office simply because they weren’t listening to the right kind of music was insulting to millions of voters who had rejected the Republicans policies, and further reinforced perceptions that Republicans were horribly out of touch with the electorate.

However, Steele himself doesn’t really need to be hugely popular, what makes a good party chairmen is their organisational skill and foresight for electoral strategy rather than their skills as a candidate. For example Democratic Chairman Howard Dean is credited with being a major part of the parties 2006 and 2008 election wins despite relatively low personal approval ratings. However the last few weeks also saw the national debut of Bobby Jindal, the 37 year old Governor of Louisiana who has been hyped as “The Republican Obama” and “The Next Ronald Reagan.” At the start of February Jindal was the odds on favourite to win the 2012 Republican Nomination for President, as he combined a strong populist moderate appeal with social and fiscal conservatism sure to energise the Republican base.

Jindal’s big debut was the Republican Response to President Obama’s February 24th Address to Congress, a major speech equivalent to the State of the Union Address. Jindal’s response was aired on prime time TV, and was hyped as a chance for the young star to provide a strong counter argument to Obama’s big spending Budget, which would bring America’s budget deficit to a staggering 1.3 trillion.

Far from the eloquent counter that conservatives were hoping for, Jindal’s speech was hokey, poorly written, offered stale ideas and the Governors delivery sounded like a kindergarten teacher trying to convince his students that it was naptime. Jindal’s speech was widely panned by both liberal and conservative viewers, and it seems for now at least the GOP will have to look elsewhere for its fresh new leader.

Leadership worries have also plagued the opposition here in New Zealand. With National currently sitting at around 48% in most polls, Labour needs a strong leader to counter John Key’s high personal approval ratings (currently amongst the highest ever recorded for a New Zealand Prime Minister.) However in a recent poll Labour Leader Phil Goff was chosen as preferred Prime Minister by just 6% of respondents, compared to a staggering 51% for John Key. While Goff was seen as a stable leader for Labour following the departure of Helen Clark, it seems he simply doesn’t have a high enough profile to compete with John Key.

As well as leadership problems Labour has a real need for some fresh ideas, as a recent Roy Morgan poll showed that 60% of people think the country is currently going in the right direction, showing huge satisfaction amongst the electorate with the agenda set by National. Labour, just like the Republicans in America, are under pressure from grass roots supporters to make changes to their policy platform and usher in some new ideas. Despite Goff’s competence as a minister, and high morale amongst Labour activists, Goff will feel some pressure to up his approval ratings a lot to ward off potential leadership challenges, especially from the slightly more liberal David Cunliffe.

Being in opposition is never easy, especially when a party has been in power for a long time. However in 2008 both the Republicans and Labour were clearly tired, out of touch with voters and found themselves on the wrong side of a couple of important issues. The challenge for both parties now is to elevate new blood, find fresh ideas and lay the ground work for electoral comebacks.